Page 33 - Atouts-Cameroun-2017
P. 33

33Macro-Economic EnvironmentTHE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXTAccording to the IMF (Prospects for the World Economy), in October 2015, the commodity- exporting countries should face a difficult situa- tion in 2016. The world prices of these commo- dities have suddenly declined over the last three years, and potential output has considerably slo- wed down in emerging and developing coun- tries that export these products.Having analyzed the data from more than 40 exporting countries over more than 50 years, the IMF continued saying: “the gloomy outlook in the prices of commodities could cut by nearly a point per annum the growth rate of the countries expor- ting these products during the period 2015- 2017 compared to 2012-2014. The brake should be more pronounced in the energy expor- ting countries -approximately 21/4 points on average over the same period, due to sharp drop in oil prices during the past year.In 2015, the IMF had lowered the world’s eco- nomic growth forecasts at 3.1% for 3.4% in 2014. This reflects a slowdown in emerging mar- kets and modest recovery in advanced countries. In 2016, the growth of the world economy ought to speed up with a rate of 3.6%, driven both bythe advanced countries that will experience stea- dying, and emerging countries despite the slow- down in China.In the US in particular, growth was weak in early 2015 due among others, to the appreciation of the dollar. It recovered afterward thanks specifi- cally to lower energy prices, reaching 0.9% in the second quarter for 0.2% in the first.The euro area has benefited from a drop in oil prices, depreciation of the euro and accommo- dating monetary policy. Its growth had to move from 0.9% in 2014 to 1.5% in 2015 and 1.6% in 2016. In fact, oil prices drop sharply reduced its energy bill and supported consumption through purchasing power given to households.In China, growth continued to slow down, moving from 7.3% in 2014 to 6.8% in 2015 and 6.3% in 2016, due mainly to the decline in real estate investment and heavy industries under- going overcapacity as the aluminium’s.In the CEMAC zone, BEAC had banked in 2015 on a downturn caused by the drop in the prices of exported commodities, the fall in oil pro- duction and decline in public investment. Growth in the sub-region declined from 4.6% in 2014 to 2.5% in 2015; it was to be up 5.6% in 2016.LES ATOUTS ECONOMIQUES DU CAMEROUN


































































































   31   32   33   34   35