Page 31 - Atouts Economiques Cameroun-2019-GB
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                 INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT
An article by the IMF in the World Economic Outlook in October 2017 reveals that global economic outlook has improved and is looking advantageous. Boosted by buoyant investment, industrial production and world trade, the reco- very is gaining strength. There is an increase in the expectations of growth in comparison to April and July 2017 editions on the global economic outlook. Still at 3.2% in 2016, global growth was estimated at 3.6% in 2017, and expected to reach 3.8% in 2018. However, this relative improvement shades the gap in between the countries. While the economic activity starts to improve in euro area, Japan, China, European emerging countries and Russia, growth is weaker than expected in the US, UK and India. Besides, growth remains slow and unequal in several emerging and developing countries.
In developed countries, growth rates was estima- ted at 2.2% in 2017, after it had reached 1.7% the previous year, and is expected to be at 2% in 2018. However, there are risks to potential growth due to the ageing population, low invest- ment and low productivity growth. Growth pros- pects for GDP per capita are being held back by weak productivity growth and rising dependency ratios among older people.
In the United States, the growth rate was estimated at 2.2% in 2017 and expected at 2.3% in 2018.
This evolution can be explained by the favourable financial conditions and the confidence of business leaders and consumers. However, uncertainty over the nature and timing of government action raises fears that fiscal policy may be less expansionary than expected. The market expectations of a fiscal stimulus have also eased.
In the euro area, recovery continues with growth rates exceeding the expectations. Growth is consolidating at 2.1% in 2017, after a rate of 1.8% in 2016. The acceleration is mainly due to an increase in exports in a context of the expan- sion of the worldwide trading system. It is also favoured by accommodative financial condi- tions, strong domestic demand and a weak euro. Growth was revised upwards in Germany (2%), France (1.6%), Italy (1.5%) and Spain (3.1%). In 2018, it is expected at 1.9% for the entire area.
In Japan, growth was estimated at 1.5% in 2017, after a rate of 1% in 2016. It should be at 0.7% in 2018. The expansion is based on a strengthe- ning of global demand and the measures taken by the authorities to maintain an accompanying budgetary policy. The growth is driven by private consumption, investment and exports.
In emerging countries, there should be in China for instance, an acceleration in economic activity with a growth rate estimated at 6.8% in 2017, and expected at 6.5% in 2018. A decline
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