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                 should manifest in the industrial sector although offset by stronger credit growth and increased public investment. The rebalancing process of the Chinese economy should eventually benefit both China and the whole world. In India, growth is expected to be 6.7%, against 7.1% in 2016, due to continued turmoil related to the exchange of banknotes, as well as transition costs related to the launch of a national tax on goods and ser- vices in July 2017; a measure that should even- tually lead to the unification of India's vast domes- tic market. Her growth in 2018 should rise to 7.4%. In other emerging countries, several coun- tries like Brazil (-3.6% in 2016, 0.7% in 2017) and Russia (-0.2%, 1.8%) are gradually emer- ging from the market recession.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to gradually rebound after the slowdown observed in 2016. However, the outlook is not favourable and per capita income is stagnant in several countries. Commodity exporting countries, including oil-pro- ducing ones, are particularly affected by the pro- longed downward adjustment of export ear- nings. Growth was forecast at 2.6% in 2017 compared to a rate of 1.4% observed in 2016 and the projected 3.4% for 2018.
The CEMAC area (Central African Economic and Monetary Community), with the ongoing decline of world oil prices, still experiences reces- sion. Indeed, five out of six countries (Cameroon, Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Chad) pro- duce oil, which accounts for about 60% of total exports. Between 2014 and 2016, government revenues from oil exports halved due to falling international prices. At the same time, expansio- nary national fiscal policies and an accommoda- ting monetary policy helped to reduce foreign exchange reserves, which reached 2.3 months of imports at the end of 2016, threatening the stability of the CFAF. To restore economies and achieve sustainable growth, a strategy has been implemented since January 2017 with a support by governments, regional authorities and the IMF. At national level, the strategy is based on: bud- getary adjustment for the restoration of macroe- conomic balances; structural reforms to reform public finances and improve the business cli- mate. At sub-regional level, measures aim at: tightening monetary policy and liquidity manage- ment to restore external stability; strengthening the financial sector.
According to latest projections by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), the economic situation in the sub-region has improved somew- hat, although it is still worrying. The economic growth rate was estimated at 0.2% in late 2017 as in 2016. The external accounts are impro- ving, the current account deficit returning to 6.4% of GDP, after 15.3% of GDP in 2016. As for the
deficit on the fiscal balance, excluding grants, it fell to 3.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The coverage rate of money stood at 59.1%.
GROWTH DRIVERS IN CAMEROON
The national economy has shown resilience faced with the double external shock on oil and security. The diversification of the economy has been an asset to help maintain economic growth at a satisfactory level despite the sharp drop in oil prices and other commodities. However, growth slowed down from 5.7% in 2015 to 4.5% in 2016. Oil production, which since 2012 is increasing thanks to the start of produc- tion of new fields, has allowed mitigate the effects of the fall in prices in 2015. It decreased by 3.7% in 2016. Excluding oil, growth is more dynamic. It stood at 5.1% in 2016 compared with 4.4% in 2015.
Driven mainly by the “agriculture” branch, which benefits from the dynamism of its “industrial and export agriculture” component, activity in the pri- mary sector grew by 6.8% against 5.3% in 2015. This is linked to the various investments that have been made in the cocoa / coffee sec- tors since 2012/2013. In addition, the introduc- tion of modern farming techniques through mechanization, the distribution of seedlings and high-yielding seeds, and the strengthening of the supervision of producers, allow for increased domestic production. The sector accounts for 15.3% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
In the secondary sector, growth slowed down at 3.2% in 2016, after 9.6% in 2015. This decele- ration was attributable to the slowdown in activity in the “generation and distribution of electricity”, “water production and supply, and sanitation” and “extractive industries”. In extractive industries the ageing of oil fields and falling prices did not encourage investment. Conversely, the “buildings and public works sector” branch was dynamic in 2016, thanks to the continuation of major road infrastructure projects and engineering structures, the construction of roads known as opening up agricultural, pastoral, and tourist production areas. The sector accounts for 24.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Activity is accelerating in the tertiary sector, moving from 3.4% in 2015 to 4.5% in 2016. This performance can be observed in all the busi- ness lines and more particularly in the fields of “trade, restaurants and hotels”, “transport” and “information and telecommunications”. The fields benefited from the diversification of the offer of telecommunication services (internet, mobile tele- phony, television), inclusion and financial innova- tions (electronic banking, mobile money), as well as the positive effects of the organization of the 2016 women CAN. The sector accounts for 52.1% of GDP.
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